• 1) The lack of certainty about future trends makes it necessary for demographers to take informed guesses about what is to be expected.

• True
• False
• 2) The logistic model assumes that

• apopulation grows more rapidly than the food to sustain its members
• babsolute growth remain non-constant over the period under observation
• cgrowth rates remain non-constant over the period under observation
• dB and C, above
• 3) The process of making estimations or projections from a census date by using the simple growth models is called

• aextrapolation
• binference
• cforecast
• dinterpolation
• 4) The Pareto’s curve is a mathematical model that refers to

• aan age-sex distribution
• ba measurement tool to predict urban growth
• ca principle of economic saturation
• dan enumeration used to indicate an inter-census year population size
• 5) The simple growth model approach is preferred to the components method of projection because of its ability to determine not only likely future population size but also age and sex distributions.

• True
• False
• 6) Exponential growth assumes a continual increase in the rate of growth between two dates.

• True
• False
• 7) Which of the following measurement models assumes that population growth is rapid during the early years of the interval and slows down until it reaches ZPG or negative increase?

• aaritmetic growth model
• blogistic model
• cgeometric growth model
• dexponential growth model
• 8) Once the idea of having rates vary over a projection period is considered, the possibilities are virtually unlimited, as we attempt to develop projection models that more faithfully capture the way in which real populations change.

• True
• False
• 9) Forecasts and projections, including matrix-based projections, both attempt to assess the size and/or composition of future populations. However, they employ dissimilar methods.

• True
• False
• 10) Which of the following methods is the most efficient tool in making projections?

• acomponents method
• bextrapolation
• cmatrix-based method
• dsimple growth models
• 11) Some of the most advanced approaches to forecasting have been developed in the business fields of marketing and finance.

• True
• False
• 12) The simple growth model can readily be applied to projection without the need for a series of high, medium, and low estimates.

• True
• False
• 13) The linear model assumes that

• athe population growth rate is constant between intervals
• bpopulation growth follows “S” curve
• cpopulation growth is followed by sharp population decline
• dpopulation growth is curvilinear during the given interval(s)
• 14) Determining the likelihood that a particular outcome will occur is not within our capabilities, although it is usually safe to assume that current patterns will prevail until tomorrow, next month, or perhaps next year.

• True
• False
• 15) The difference between the simple growth models and the components method is that

• acomponents method takes sex-age structure into consideration
• bsimple growth models take sex-age structure into consideration
• ccomponents method takes migration into consideration
• dsimple growth models take migration into consideration
• 16) The so-called saturation effect of population growth can be applied to

• alogistic growth model
• barithmetic growth model
• cgeometric growth model
• dexponential growth model
• 17) The simple growth model approach can be used to produce a set of projections based on one date, one growth rate, and three or four different equations.

• True
• False
• 18) Among the following models, which one would produce the highest estimation?

• alinear growth model
• barithmetic growth model
• cgeometric growth model
• dexponential growth model
• 19) William Ascher (1978) has pointed out that the substantive knowledge required to make valid assumptions in demographic applications is now well developed.

• True
• False
• 20) Which of the following methods does not include populations over age 65?

• acomponents
• bcomponents II
• dcohort survival
• 21) One of the differences between population estimation and projection is that

• aestimation is used to obtain long-term predictions of population
• bprojection is used to obtain long-term predictions of population
• cestimation is used to predict the changes in fertility and mortality
• dprojection is used to predict the changes in fertility and mortality
• 22) The administrative records method is no longer used by the Census Bureau to estimate the sizes of state, county, and subcounty (e.g., urban) populations.

• True
• False
• 23) Matrix-based methods can be used for any kind of projection, but they are computationally most efficient when projecting large populations over long periods with the use of computer programs.

• True
• False
• 24) The cohort survival method of estimation is more precise than the simple growth models because in the place of crude rates it employs age-specific measures, in a manner similar to life table analysis.

• True
• False
• 25) The assumption of a closed population applies to situations in which in-migration is

• afar greater than out-migration
• bequal to out-migration
• cfar less than out-migration
• dis unrelated to migration
• 26) When faced with the problem of anticipating the size and/or structure of a population at a date for which information is unavailable, population scientists begin with the premise that change can only occur through the effects of fertility, mortality, and migration.

• True
• False
• 27) With the declines in birth rates in Europe, several countries

• aare at or below ZPG
• bhave seen rapid increases in mortality rates
• cbirth rates began to increase by 2010
• done of the above
• 28) In making population projections, demographers usually produce

• aone accurate result
• ba set of two results, high and low
• ca set of three results, high, medium, and low
• da set of four results, very high, high, medium, and low
• 29) A closed population assumes

• azero population growth
• bthat interracial marriages are illegal
• cvery little social mobility
• dzero net migration
• 30) Qualitative forecasting methods are dependent on numeric time series data.

• True
• False